Why the 12% SIP slider is not a forecast

Default expected return on these pages is an illustration. How to use the variance band and a conservative slider instead of last year’s CAGR.

By Sachin S Marnur · Software engineer, Bengaluru, India · Last reviewed 29 August 2026

The SIP calculator opens at 12%. I chose that because every other Indian calculator does, and because a blank field would freeze users. I did not choose it because I think your folio will compound at 12% until 2046. This page exists so that default does not become a quote.

What 12% is on this site

It is a constant monthly rate plugged into the future-value-of-annuity formula. Every year is the same. There is no crash in year 3. There is no 40% year in year 11. Expense ratios are not subtracted unless you lower the slider. Direct versus regular is your job. The year-by-year table at 12% is a textbook curve. I show inflation next to it so the textbook at least admits prices rise. I still need you to admit markets wobble.

How I actually use the sliders

Run the goal at 8% and at 12% with the same inflation. If the 8% SIP already breaks the household budget, the 12% screenshot was a comfort object. The on-page variance control (±2% around the chosen rate) is a quick fan chart, not history. For “what did this folio actually do?”, use the CAGR calculator on real start and end values. That number is a measurement. It is allowed to be 4% or 18%. It is not allowed to be pasted back as next decade’s expected return without a conversation with someone registered to give advice.

Step-up SIP at 12% plus a 10% annual hike is two illustrations stacked. It is a good way to see that raising the debit matters. It is a bad way to promise ₹2 crore. Read how inflation is applied so you do not celebrate a nominal step-up that still loses in real terms.

Behaviour is not in the formula

The engine assumes you never stop the mandate. Real people stop after a 20% drawdown. A 12% average that includes years you were not invested is not your 12%. If you know you will panic, size equity smaller or keep a larger FD sleeve - SIP vs FD is that job assignment and type a lower SIP rate rather than a heroic one.

Nothing here is a scheme recommendation. AMFI and fund factsheets are the documents for past performance, with all their caveats. growwithsip will not rank funds.

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