Why the 12% SIP slider is not a forecast

Default assumed return on these pages is an illustration. How to use the variance band and a conservative slider instead of last year’s CAGR.

By Sachin S Marnur · Software engineer, Bengaluru, India · Last reviewed 5 September 2026

The SIP calculator opens at 12%. I chose that because every other Indian calculator does, and because a blank field would freeze users. I did not choose it because I think your folio will compound at 12% until 2046. This page exists so that default does not become a quote in a family WhatsApp group.

Hands hesitating over a calculator and a mutual fund folder on a wooden desk, without treating a round percentage as a forecast
Move the slider. Do not screenshot the default and call it a plan. Photo for this guide: https://growwithsip.in/guides/sip-12-percent-slider.jpg

What 12% is on this site

It is a constant monthly rate plugged into the future-value-of-annuity formula. Every year is the same. There is no crash in year 3. There is no 40% year in year 11. Expense ratios are not subtracted unless you lower the slider. Direct versus regular is your job. The year-by-year table at 12% is a textbook curve. I show inflation next to it so the textbook at least admits prices rise. I still need you to admit markets wobble. How inflation is applied is a separate note; this one is only about the return slider.

A worked SIP: 8%, 12%, and the +2% band

Leave ₹10,000 a month for 20 years. You contribute ₹24 lakh of your own money in every run. Same engine as the live SIP page:

Constant rateIllustrated maturityWhat that run is for
8%about ₹59.3 lakhStress: does the SIP still fit the budget?
10% (−2% around 12%)about ₹76.6 lakhPessimistic variance band
12% (default)about ₹99.9 lakhIllustration only
14% (+2% around 12%)about ₹1.32 croreOptimistic variance band
Bar chart of the same 20-year Rs 10,000 SIP: Rs 24 lakh invested, about Rs 59.3 lakh at 8 percent, Rs 99.9 lakh at 12 percent, Rs 1.32 crore at 14 percent
Same formula as the SIP calculator. Not market history. Diagram: https://growwithsip.in/guides/sip-8-vs-12-illustration.svg

How I actually use the sliders

Run the goal at 8% and at 12% with the same inflation. If the 8% SIP already breaks the household budget, the 12% screenshot was a comfort object. The on-page variance control (±2% around the chosen rate) is a quick fan of three constant rates, not Indian index history. For “what did this folio actually do?”, use the CAGR calculator on real start and end values. That number is a measurement. It is allowed to be 4% or 18%. It is not allowed to be pasted back as next decade’s expected return without a conversation with someone registered to give advice.

Three panels showing pessimistic, base, and optimistic SIP runs as the same formula at rate minus 2 percent, the slider, and rate plus 2 percent
Variance is still a flat rate. It is not sequence of returns. Diagram: https://growwithsip.in/guides/sip-variance-not-history.svg

Step-up SIP at 12% plus a 10% annual hike is two illustrations stacked. It is a good way to see that raising the debit matters. It is a bad way to promise ₹2 crore.

Behaviour is not in the formula

The engine assumes you never stop the mandate. Real people stop after a 20% drawdown. A 12% average that includes years you were not invested is not your 12%. If you know you will panic, size equity smaller or keep a larger FD sleeve SIP vs FD is that job assignment and type a lower SIP rate rather than a heroic one.

Nothing here is a scheme recommendation. AMFI and fund factsheets are the documents for past performance, with all their caveats. growwithsip will not rank funds.

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